Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 10–12 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.5% 28.4–30.7% 28.0–31.0% 27.8–31.4% 27.2–31.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 21.0–23.1% 20.7–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.1% 11.3–13.0% 11.1–13.2% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.1% 7.5–8.9% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.8% 7.1–8.5% 7.0–8.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.4% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 5% 99.7%  
25 18% 95%  
26 9% 77%  
27 68% 68% Median
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 10% 99.6%  
19 67% 89% Median
20 21% 22%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 7% 100%  
10 13% 93%  
11 77% 81% Median
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 85% 98% Median
7 12% 12%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 67% 99.9% Median
7 30% 33%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 1.0% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 83% 88% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 90% 99.7% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 67% 99.9% Median
7 30% 33%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations