Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 17–19 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.5% 28.4–30.6% 28.1–30.9% 27.9–31.2% 27.4–31.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.8–22.8% 20.6–23.1% 20.3–23.3% 19.9–23.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.3% 11.6–13.1% 11.3–13.4% 11.2–13.6% 10.8–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.6% 7.0–8.3% 6.8–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.4–8.9%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 3.4–4.3% 3.2–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.0% 1.3–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 19–20 18–20 18–21 17–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 9% 99.8%  
25 12% 91%  
26 54% 79% Median
27 25% 25%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 5% 98%  
19 48% 93% Median
20 41% 45%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 22% 99.5%  
11 66% 77% Median
12 9% 12%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 21% 100%  
6 72% 79% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 59% 99.8% Median
7 24% 41%  
8 18% 18%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0.2% 16%  
4 16% 16%  
5 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 45% 99.9%  
4 54% 55% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 94% 99.4% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 59% 99.8% Median
7 24% 41%  
8 18% 18%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations