Opinion Poll by EMG, 23–24 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.4% | 25.6–29.3% | 25.1–29.8% | 24.7–30.3% | 23.9–31.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.6–14.0% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.7–15.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 97% | |
| 23 | 11% | 94% | |
| 24 | 29% | 83% | |
| 25 | 27% | 54% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 27% | |
| 27 | 7% | 8% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 95% | |
| 18 | 15% | 94% | |
| 19 | 38% | 79% | Median |
| 20 | 24% | 41% | |
| 21 | 15% | 17% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 49% | 97% | Median |
| 11 | 38% | 48% | |
| 12 | 7% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 57% | 93% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 36% | |
| 9 | 21% | 26% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 88% | |
| 7 | 39% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 26% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 38% | 58% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 20% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 42% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 45% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 43% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 88% | |
| 7 | 39% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 26% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: EMG
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–24 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.15%