Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 24–25 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.7% 26.7–30.8% 26.1–31.4% 25.7–31.9% 24.7–32.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.0–23.7% 19.5–24.2% 19.0–24.7% 18.2–25.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.4% 11.0–14.0% 10.6–14.4% 10.3–14.8% 9.6–15.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2% 6.7–10.5% 6.2–11.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.2–8.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–6.0% 2.8–6.5%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–3.0%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–3.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–26 21–26 21–26 20–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 16–22 16–23 15–23 15–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Azione (RE) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 8% 98%  
22 22% 90%  
23 10% 68%  
24 27% 58% Median
25 12% 30%  
26 17% 18%  
27 0.6% 1.0%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.4% 100%  
15 4% 99.6%  
16 15% 96%  
17 23% 81%  
18 14% 58% Median
19 10% 44%  
20 16% 33%  
21 2% 17%  
22 10% 15%  
23 5% 5%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 35% 98%  
10 30% 63% Median
11 23% 33%  
12 9% 10%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 22% 97%  
6 30% 75% Median
7 25% 45%  
8 19% 19%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 36% 99.7%  
5 42% 64% Median
6 19% 22%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 0% 63%  
2 0% 63%  
3 7% 63%  
4 39% 55% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 7% 45%  
4 35% 38%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 16% 99.9%  
3 51% 84% Median
4 30% 33%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 66% 90% Median
3 21% 24%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 36% 99.7%  
5 42% 64% Median
6 19% 22%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations