Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 3–4 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 27.4–31.5% | 26.8–32.1% | 26.3–32.6% | 25.4–33.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.6% | 19.8–23.6% | 19.3–24.1% | 18.9–24.6% | 18.1–25.6% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.4–13.3% | 10.0–13.8% | 9.7–14.2% | 9.1–15.0% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.3% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.2–11.4% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.2–8.1% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.5–9.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.8–3.2% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 24–27 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 21–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 6% | 98% | |
| 24 | 47% | 91% | Median |
| 25 | 22% | 45% | |
| 26 | 7% | 22% | |
| 27 | 6% | 15% | |
| 28 | 3% | 10% | |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 97% | |
| 17 | 42% | 89% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 48% | |
| 19 | 6% | 24% | |
| 20 | 9% | 18% | |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 47% | 91% | Median |
| 10 | 26% | 44% | |
| 11 | 13% | 18% | |
| 12 | 3% | 5% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 52% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 27% | 38% | |
| 8 | 9% | 11% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 30% | 87% | |
| 6 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 50% | 95% | Median |
| 4 | 27% | 45% | |
| 5 | 18% | 18% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 39% | |
| 3 | 31% | 39% | |
| 4 | 7% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 20% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 45% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 30% | 87% | |
| 6 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 3–4 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%