Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 3–4 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.6% 26.7–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.8% 24.7–32.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.4% 20.6–24.4% 20.1–24.9% 19.7–25.4% 18.8–26.4%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.9% 11.4–14.5% 11.1–14.9% 10.7–15.3% 10.1–16.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.4% 6.7–9.8% 6.4–10.2% 5.9–10.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.5–8.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.1–5.9% 2.8–6.4%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.4% 2.2–4.6% 1.9–5.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–26 22–27 21–28 20–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–21 17–21 16–22 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 9–13 9–13 8–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Azione (RE) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 2–6
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 15% 97%  
23 17% 83%  
24 31% 65% Median
25 19% 34%  
26 10% 16%  
27 2% 5%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 97%  
18 37% 91%  
19 12% 55% Median
20 29% 43%  
21 10% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 7% 99.2%  
10 31% 93%  
11 35% 62% Median
12 11% 27%  
13 16% 16%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 17% 95%  
6 54% 79% Median
7 23% 25%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 11% 99.9%  
5 42% 89% Median
6 33% 47%  
7 14% 14%  
8 0.2% 0.4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 6% 54% Median
4 43% 47%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 47% 83% Median
4 27% 36%  
5 8% 9%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 11% 24%  
4 13% 13%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 61% 88% Median
3 22% 26%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.1% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 37%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–7

Lega Nord (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 11% 99.9%  
5 42% 89% Median
6 33% 47%  
7 14% 14%  
8 0.2% 0.4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations