Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 18–23 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.5% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.4–31.7% | 27.0–32.1% | 26.2–33.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.5% | 20.0–23.1% | 19.6–23.5% | 19.3–23.9% | 18.6–24.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.5% | 10.7–13.8% | 10.4–14.1% | 9.9–14.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.9–8.9% | 6.7–9.2% | 6.4–9.5% | 6.0–10.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.5–8.4% | 5.2–8.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–5.0% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.5–3.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 3% | 96% | |
| 24 | 24% | 93% | |
| 25 | 35% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 34% | |
| 27 | 19% | 23% | |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 13% | 98% | |
| 18 | 21% | 85% | |
| 19 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 20 | 34% | 45% | |
| 21 | 8% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 34% | 88% | |
| 11 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 29% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 29% | 97% | |
| 6 | 53% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 67% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 20% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 98% | |
| 4 | 49% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 17% | |
| 3 | 3% | 17% | |
| 4 | 12% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 5% | 10% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 26% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 14% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 29% | 29% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 67% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 20% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 18–23 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.60%