Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 13–15 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 26.6–31.7% 25.9–32.4% 25.3–33.1% 24.2–34.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.9% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.1% 18.6–25.7% 17.6–26.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.5% 11.7–15.6% 11.2–16.2% 10.8–16.7% 10.0–17.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.5% 7.1–10.2% 6.7–10.7% 6.4–11.2% 5.8–12.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.3–8.1% 5.0–8.6% 4.7–9.0% 4.2–9.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.3–5.6% 2.0–6.3%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.9–5.0% 1.6–5.6%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.5–4.2% 1.2–4.8%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.5–4.2% 1.2–4.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.7–3.4% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.0% 1.1–4.6%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.0% 0.6–3.5%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.0% 0.6–3.5%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.2% 0.3–2.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.7% 0.1–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–28 22–28 22–28 20–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 16–21 16–21 16–21 15–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 9–14 9–15 8–15
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 4–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–5 2–5 2–6 2–6
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 3 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–5
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 3% 98%  
23 11% 95%  
24 48% 83% Median
25 13% 36%  
26 6% 23%  
27 4% 17%  
28 11% 12%  
29 0.8% 1.4%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 8% 98%  
17 8% 90%  
18 14% 82%  
19 44% 68% Median
20 12% 24%  
21 9% 12%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 7% 99.3%  
10 9% 93%  
11 20% 84%  
12 16% 64% Median
13 41% 48%  
14 5% 7%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 23% 97%  
6 42% 74% Median
7 19% 32%  
8 10% 13%  
9 2% 3%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 11% 99.7%  
5 23% 89%  
6 44% 65% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 99.8%  
2 8% 99.8%  
3 25% 91%  
4 52% 66% Median
5 10% 14%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 3% 16%  
4 13% 13%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 13% 99.6%  
2 33% 86%  
3 50% 53% Median
4 2% 3%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 36%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 11% 99.7%  
5 23% 89%  
6 44% 65% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations