Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 20–27 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.6% | 25.2–28.1% | 24.8–28.5% | 24.4–28.9% | 23.7–29.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 10.4–12.5% | 10.1–12.8% | 9.9–13.1% | 9.4–13.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.8–10.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.7–7.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.9% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.1–4.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 16% | 97% | |
| 22 | 29% | 81% | |
| 23 | 49% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 31% | 97% | |
| 19 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 29% | 42% | |
| 21 | 12% | 13% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 59% | 99.8% | Median |
| 10 | 41% | 41% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 19% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 31% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 48% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 44% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 36% | |
| 3 | 10% | 36% | |
| 4 | 26% | 26% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 98% | |
| 3 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 31% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–27 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.90%