Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 27–28 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.6% 24.6–28.6% 24.1–29.2% 23.6–29.7% 22.7–30.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.8% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.2–26.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.4% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.5% 11.2–15.9% 10.6–16.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.6% 6.8–10.0% 6.5–10.3% 6.0–11.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.4%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.4%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.4%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 21–25 20–25 20–26 20–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 17–21 17–22 17–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–15
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 4 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 3 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 8% 99.7%  
21 5% 92%  
22 9% 87%  
23 19% 78%  
24 48% 60% Median
25 8% 12%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 12% 95%  
19 57% 83% Median
20 19% 26%  
21 3% 7%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.9% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 48% 98%  
11 11% 50% Median
12 24% 39%  
13 14% 16%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 13% 99.4%  
6 65% 86% Median
7 15% 21%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 16% 95%  
6 61% 78% Median
7 16% 17%  
8 0.9% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 0.3% 20%  
4 19% 20%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0.4% 57%  
4 54% 56% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 66% 97% Median
4 23% 31%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0.1% 0.8%  
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 16% 99.9%  
2 33% 84%  
3 51% 51% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 17%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 16% 95%  
6 61% 78% Median
7 16% 17%  
8 0.9% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations