Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 6–11 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.8% | 27.2–30.6% | 26.7–31.0% | 26.3–31.5% | 25.6–32.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.1–25.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.5% | 10.7–13.8% | 10.4–14.1% | 9.9–14.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.6–8.6% | 6.4–8.9% | 6.1–9.1% | 5.7–9.7% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.4% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.6–8.2% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–5.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 21% | 97% | |
| 23 | 13% | 76% | |
| 24 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 25 | 24% | 44% | |
| 26 | 13% | 19% | |
| 27 | 3% | 7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 7% | 95% | |
| 17 | 12% | 89% | |
| 18 | 22% | 77% | |
| 19 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 33% | |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 12% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 35% | 87% | |
| 11 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 10% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 35% | 89% | |
| 6 | 48% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 37% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 45% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 40% | |
| 3 | 10% | 40% | |
| 4 | 27% | 30% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 33% | 98% | |
| 4 | 54% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 3% | 14% | |
| 4 | 11% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 33% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 37% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 45% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 6–11 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.45%