Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 12–14 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.4% 27.3–29.6% 26.9–30.0% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.2% 21.1–23.3% 20.8–23.6% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.4% 11.6–13.3% 11.4–13.6% 11.2–13.8% 10.8–14.3%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 24–26 23–27 23–27 23–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 7% 99.9%  
24 26% 93%  
25 33% 67% Median
26 28% 33%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.9% 100%  
18 19% 99.1%  
19 33% 80% Median
20 34% 48%  
21 12% 14%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 17% 99.5%  
11 51% 82% Median
12 31% 31%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 10% 100%  
6 77% 90% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 39% 100%  
6 28% 61% Median
7 31% 33%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 47%  
2 0% 47%  
3 1.1% 47%  
4 46% 46%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 45% 99.6%  
4 52% 55% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 16% 100%  
2 79% 84% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 39% 100%  
6 28% 61% Median
7 31% 33%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations