Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 18 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.0% | 26.5–31.7% | 25.8–32.5% | 25.2–33.1% | 24.0–34.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 18.8–23.5% | 18.2–24.2% | 17.6–24.8% | 16.6–26.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.7–15.7% | 10.3–16.2% | 9.5–17.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.9–10.7% | 5.3–11.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% | 4.7–9.1% | 4.2–10.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 2.9–5.1% | 2.7–5.5% | 2.5–5.9% | 2.1–6.6% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.8–4.9% | 1.5–5.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% | 0.4–2.3% | 0.3–2.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.8% | 0.1–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 9% | 97% | |
| 23 | 12% | 88% | |
| 24 | 7% | 77% | |
| 25 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 12% | 30% | |
| 27 | 3% | 18% | |
| 28 | 10% | 14% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 5% | 97% | |
| 16 | 43% | 92% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 49% | |
| 18 | 10% | 32% | |
| 19 | 6% | 22% | |
| 20 | 9% | 16% | |
| 21 | 3% | 7% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 10% | 97% | |
| 10 | 44% | 88% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 44% | |
| 12 | 8% | 31% | |
| 13 | 17% | 24% | |
| 14 | 6% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 16% | 92% | |
| 6 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 36% | |
| 8 | 15% | 17% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 45% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 42% | |
| 7 | 12% | 15% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 53% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 27% | 40% | |
| 5 | 11% | 14% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0% | 51% | |
| 3 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 4 | 43% | 47% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 4 | 7% | 10% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 4 | 35% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 50% | 83% | Median |
| 3 | 24% | 33% | |
| 4 | 7% | 9% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 27% | 29% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 45% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 42% | |
| 7 | 12% | 15% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.27%