Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 13–18 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.5% | 26.9–30.2% | 26.4–30.7% | 26.0–31.1% | 25.2–32.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.7–23.8% | 20.3–24.2% | 19.9–24.6% | 19.2–25.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 11.0–14.2% | 10.7–14.5% | 10.2–15.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.2–9.2% | 5.8–9.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 11% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 13% | 88% | |
| 24 | 26% | 75% | Median |
| 25 | 5% | 49% | |
| 26 | 16% | 43% | |
| 27 | 11% | 27% | |
| 28 | 17% | 17% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 7% | 98% | |
| 18 | 35% | 91% | |
| 19 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 28% | |
| 21 | 14% | 14% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 50% | 94% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 44% | |
| 12 | 9% | 10% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 21% | 98% | |
| 6 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 7 | 36% | 36% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 21% | 100% | |
| 5 | 43% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 41% | |
| 3 | 4% | 41% | |
| 4 | 33% | 37% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 77% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 83% | Median |
| 3 | 14% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 21% | 100% | |
| 5 | 43% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 13–18 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.88%