Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 25–28 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.6% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.0% 24.9–30.5% 24.1–31.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–25 21–25 20–25 20–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 4 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 16% 97%  
22 25% 81%  
23 15% 56% Median
24 30% 41%  
25 9% 10%  
26 1.3% 1.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.5% 100%  
14 6% 98.5%  
15 36% 92%  
16 16% 56% Median
17 25% 40%  
18 7% 14%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.8% 0.8%  
21 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 23% 97%  
12 50% 74% Median
13 21% 24%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 25% 98%  
6 62% 74% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0.8% 99.6%  
4 55% 98.8% Median
5 35% 43%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 7% 94%  
4 52% 86% Median
5 34% 35%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 61% 94% Median
4 31% 34%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 4% 5%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 67% 85% Median
3 17% 18%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0.8% 99.6%  
4 55% 98.8% Median
5 35% 43%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations