Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 26–28 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.1% 26.9–29.3% 26.6–29.6% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.9–23.1% 20.6–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.7% 11.9–13.6% 11.6–13.9% 11.4–14.1% 11.0–14.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.8% 6.2–7.5% 6.0–7.7% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.6% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 23–26 23–27 23–27 22–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–22 18–22 18–22 17–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.9% 100%  
23 10% 99.1%  
24 11% 89%  
25 21% 78%  
26 52% 57% Median
27 5% 6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.0% 100%  
18 8% 99.0%  
19 16% 91%  
20 37% 75% Median
21 5% 38%  
22 32% 32%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 41% 99.9%  
11 42% 58% Median
12 14% 16%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 26% 99.8%  
6 58% 74% Median
7 16% 16%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 79% 96% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0% 31%  
3 11% 31%  
4 20% 20%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 72% 98% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 88% 99.0% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 79% 96% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations