Opinion Poll by Only Numbers, 29–31 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.2% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.7–31.0% | 25.2–31.5% | 24.3–32.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.4% | 20.6–24.4% | 20.1–24.9% | 19.6–25.4% | 18.8–26.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.7–13.7% | 10.4–14.2% | 10.0–14.6% | 9.4–15.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.6% | 6.8–10.0% | 6.5–10.4% | 6.0–11.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.1% | 5.8–9.4% | 5.3–10.1% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–5.9% | 2.7–6.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.0% | 2.1–5.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% | 1.8–5.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 15% | 96% | |
| 23 | 23% | 81% | |
| 24 | 40% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 18% | |
| 26 | 3% | 7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 7% | 94% | |
| 18 | 27% | 87% | |
| 19 | 35% | 61% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 26% | |
| 21 | 8% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 17% | 95% | |
| 10 | 52% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 13% | 26% | |
| 12 | 11% | 14% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 44% | 98% | |
| 6 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 31% | |
| 8 | 14% | 14% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 21% | 84% | |
| 7 | 37% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 26% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 74% | |
| 2 | 0% | 74% | |
| 3 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 4 | 41% | 48% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 31% | 92% | |
| 4 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 6% | 13% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 70% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 17% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 21% | 84% | |
| 7 | 37% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 26% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Only Numbers
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29–31 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.68%