Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 22–31 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.3% | 25.8–28.8% | 25.4–29.2% | 25.1–29.6% | 24.4–30.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.5% | 21.1–23.9% | 20.7–24.3% | 20.4–24.7% | 19.8–25.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.5–12.6% | 10.2–12.9% | 10.0–13.2% | 9.5–13.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.2–8.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.9% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.6% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 13% | 69% | |
| 22 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 38% | |
| 24 | 16% | 26% | |
| 25 | 9% | 10% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 29% | 93% | |
| 19 | 35% | 64% | Median |
| 20 | 27% | 29% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 37% | 95% | |
| 10 | 37% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 21% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 42% | 48% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 34% | 97% | |
| 6 | 60% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 70% | |
| 2 | 0% | 70% | |
| 3 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 4 | 30% | 32% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 60% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 11% | 15% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 98.8% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 24% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 34% | 97% | |
| 6 | 60% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 70% | |
| 2 | 0% | 70% | |
| 3 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 4 | 30% | 32% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–31 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.87%