Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 3 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.9% 24.7–32.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.0–23.7% 19.4–24.3% 19.0–24.8% 18.2–25.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.6% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.7% 10.5–15.1% 9.9–15.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.5–8.9%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5% 0.6–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–27 22–27 22–27 20–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–20 16–21 15–22 15–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 3–7
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.5% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.5%  
22 9% 98%  
23 18% 89%  
24 25% 71% Median
25 7% 46%  
26 24% 39%  
27 14% 15%  
28 0.8% 1.1%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 6% 97%  
17 14% 92%  
18 34% 77% Median
19 28% 43%  
20 10% 15%  
21 3% 6%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 28% 99.5%  
10 17% 71%  
11 30% 54% Median
12 17% 24%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 22% 96%  
6 63% 74% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 1.0% 1.3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.1%  
5 31% 95%  
6 54% 64% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0% 37%  
3 7% 37%  
4 22% 30%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 37% 98%  
4 57% 61% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 1.4% 8%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.2% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 51% 91% Median
3 39% 40%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 28%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 4–7 4–7 3–7

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.1%  
5 31% 95%  
6 54% 64% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations