Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 3–8 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.3% | 26.7–30.1% | 26.2–30.5% | 25.8–31.0% | 25.1–31.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.1–25.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.1% | 11.9–14.4% | 11.6–14.8% | 11.3–15.1% | 10.7–15.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.4–6.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Ora! (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ora! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 18% | 91% | |
| 24 | 33% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 40% | |
| 26 | 20% | 29% | |
| 27 | 9% | 9% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 38% | 92% | |
| 19 | 43% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 10% | |
| 21 | 5% | 7% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 16% | 98% | |
| 11 | 35% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 43% | 47% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 66% | 94% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 28% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 42% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 19% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 73% | |
| 2 | 0% | 73% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 73% | |
| 4 | 58% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 42% | |
| 3 | 2% | 42% | |
| 4 | 39% | 40% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 80% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 40% | 100% | |
| 2 | 40% | 60% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ora! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 42% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 19% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 3–8 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.52%