Opinion Poll by Only Numbers, 8–9 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.0–23.7% 19.4–24.3% 19.0–24.8% 18.2–25.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.8% 10.4–13.3% 10.0–13.8% 9.7–14.2% 9.1–15.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.6% 6.8–10.0% 6.5–10.4% 6.0–11.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–5.9% 3.3–6.2% 2.9–6.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5% 0.6–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–26 21–26 20–27 20–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 8% 97%  
22 17% 90%  
23 28% 73% Median
24 10% 45%  
25 20% 35%  
26 12% 15%  
27 2% 3%  
28 1.2% 1.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 6% 98%  
17 18% 92%  
18 35% 74% Median
19 24% 40%  
20 11% 16%  
21 4% 5%  
22 1.4% 1.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 7% 99.6%  
9 24% 93%  
10 42% 69% Median
11 16% 27%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 27% 88%  
6 31% 61% Median
7 22% 30%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 24% 98%  
6 47% 73% Median
7 21% 26%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 6% 73%  
4 53% 67% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.8% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 50% 86% Median
4 26% 36%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 4% 12%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 2% 5%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 52% 83% Median
3 30% 32%  
4 1.0% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 34%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 4 0% 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 24% 98%  
6 47% 73% Median
7 21% 26%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 6% 73%  
4 53% 67% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.8% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations