Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 16–17 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 25.8–29.8% | 25.3–30.4% | 24.8–30.9% | 23.9–31.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.4–24.1% | 19.9–24.7% | 19.5–25.1% | 18.7–26.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.8–13.7% | 10.4–14.1% | 10.1–14.5% | 9.4–15.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.6% | 6.8–10.0% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.1–11.0% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.1–8.4% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.4–7.6% | 4.0–8.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.7–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.2–4.6% | 1.9–5.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.3–4.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.1–3.7% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.5–2.6% |
| Ora! (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.4–2.4% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% | 0.3–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 22 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ora! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 79% | 97% | Median |
| 23 | 7% | 18% | |
| 24 | 3% | 11% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 5% | 96% | |
| 18 | 10% | 91% | |
| 19 | 7% | 81% | |
| 20 | 60% | 74% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 14% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 98% | |
| 10 | 9% | 89% | |
| 11 | 69% | 80% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 11% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 96% | |
| 6 | 25% | 89% | |
| 7 | 60% | 64% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 4 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 47% | |
| 6 | 6% | 15% | |
| 7 | 9% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 76% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 8% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 98% | |
| 4 | 71% | 81% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 2% | 8% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ora! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 76% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 8% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 4 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 47% | |
| 6 | 6% | 15% | |
| 7 | 9% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 16–17 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 825
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.68%