Opinion Poll by Sigma Consulting, 15–19 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.5–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.2–30.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.8% | 19.0–22.7% | 18.5–23.2% | 18.1–23.7% | 17.3–24.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.8–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.9–10.8% | 6.4–11.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.6–9.3% | 5.2–9.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.3–8.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–4.9% | 2.0–5.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.1–3.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 17% | 85% | |
| 21 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 38% | |
| 23 | 5% | 18% | |
| 24 | 13% | 14% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 16 | 26% | 95% | |
| 17 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 34% | |
| 19 | 9% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 27% | 88% | |
| 11 | 41% | 60% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 19% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 27% | 98% | |
| 6 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 36% | |
| 8 | 14% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 52% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 33% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 28% | 92% | |
| 6 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 20% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 59% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 27% | 33% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 50% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 31% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 19% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 52% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 33% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 28% | 92% | |
| 6 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 20% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sigma Consulting
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–19 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.57%