Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 22–25 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 22 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 14–19
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–15
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 0–7
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 11% 98%  
21 22% 88%  
22 25% 65% Median
23 30% 40%  
24 9% 10%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 5% 99.8%  
15 22% 94%  
16 25% 72% Median
17 27% 47%  
18 16% 20%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 6% 99.3%  
11 46% 93% Median
12 31% 47%  
13 15% 16%  
14 0.6% 1.3%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 23% 98%  
6 64% 75% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 28% 99.7%  
5 57% 72% Median
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 14% 99.5%  
4 37% 86% Median
5 37% 48%  
6 11% 11%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 58% 90% Median
4 26% 32%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 13% 14%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 55% 73% Median
3 18% 19%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–6 3–6 3–6 0–7

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 28% 99.7%  
5 57% 72% Median
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 14% 99.5%  
4 37% 86% Median
5 37% 48%  
6 11% 11%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations