Opinion Poll by Demopolis for La7, 25–26 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.3% 21.1–23.5% 20.8–23.9% 20.5–24.2% 20.0–24.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.9% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 6% 99.9%  
23 18% 94%  
24 42% 76% Median
25 33% 34%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 9% 100%  
18 5% 91%  
19 67% 86% Median
20 19% 19%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 35% 99.4%  
11 59% 65% Median
12 5% 5%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 81% 99.2% Median
6 16% 18%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 39% 99.7%  
6 60% 61% Median
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 88% 96% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 64% 99.0% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 41% 74% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 0% 5 5–6 4–6 4–6

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 39% 99.7%  
6 60% 61% Median
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 88% 96% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations