Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 25–26 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 26.9–31.7% 26.5–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.5% 19.9–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.7% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–15.0% 10.2–15.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.3%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–7.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–19 17–20 16–20 15–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 4 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.6%  
23 28% 98.6%  
24 28% 71% Median
25 13% 42%  
26 25% 30%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.3% 100%  
16 3% 98.7%  
17 37% 96%  
18 40% 59% Median
19 9% 19%  
20 9% 9%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 7% 99.8%  
10 19% 92%  
11 48% 74% Median
12 21% 25%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 6% 99.7%  
6 39% 94%  
7 51% 55% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 17% 88%  
6 56% 71% Median
7 12% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 2% 92%  
4 65% 90% Median
5 23% 25%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 34% 75% Median
4 38% 40%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0.5% 1.2%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 65% 88% Median
3 22% 23%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–6

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 17% 88%  
6 56% 71% Median
7 12% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 2% 92%  
4 65% 90% Median
5 23% 25%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations