Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 24–29 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.3% 25.7–29.0% 25.3–29.5% 24.9–29.9% 24.1–30.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.3–23.4% 19.9–23.9% 19.6–24.3% 18.9–25.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.3% 12.1–14.7% 11.8–15.1% 11.5–15.4% 11.0–16.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.3–8.2% 6.0–8.5% 5.8–8.8% 5.4–9.3%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.0% 4.1–7.5%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.3–6.9% 3.9–7.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–26 22–26 21–26 21–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 4–7 4–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 3% 99.8%  
22 4% 97%  
23 17% 93%  
24 36% 76% Median
25 18% 40%  
26 21% 21%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 5% 100%  
17 30% 95%  
18 39% 64% Median
19 22% 26%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.4%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.3% 100%  
10 4% 98.7%  
11 20% 95%  
12 50% 75% Median
13 24% 25%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 44% 95%  
6 48% 51% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 4% 99.7%  
5 72% 96% Median
6 24% 24%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0.9% 81%  
4 48% 80% Median
5 30% 32%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0.6% 19%  
4 18% 18%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 34% 98%  
4 63% 64% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 64% 82% Median
3 17% 18%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 4% 99.7%  
5 72% 96% Median
6 24% 24%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0.9% 81%  
4 48% 80% Median
5 30% 32%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations