Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 30 June–1 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 25.5–30.7% | 24.8–31.4% | 24.2–32.1% | 23.1–33.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 18.8–23.5% | 18.2–24.2% | 17.6–24.8% | 16.6–26.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.7–15.7% | 10.3–16.2% | 9.5–17.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.9–10.7% | 5.3–11.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.2–8.4% | 3.7–9.3% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.4–7.3% | 3.0–8.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% | 2.1–5.4% | 1.8–6.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.8–4.9% | 1.5–5.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.8–4.9% | 1.5–5.5% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.6% | 1.2–3.9% | 1.0–4.5% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% | 0.4–2.3% | 0.3–2.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.8% | 0.1–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 20–28 | 20–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 7% | 94% | |
| 22 | 5% | 87% | |
| 23 | 9% | 82% | |
| 24 | 36% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 29% | 37% | |
| 26 | 3% | 7% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 28 | 4% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 3% | 97% | |
| 17 | 16% | 95% | |
| 18 | 12% | 78% | |
| 19 | 4% | 66% | |
| 20 | 33% | 63% | Median |
| 21 | 29% | 30% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 70% | 89% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 19% | |
| 12 | 11% | 15% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98% | |
| 6 | 53% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 37% | 38% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 40% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 46% | 59% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 13% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 4 | 39% | 95% | |
| 5 | 52% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 33% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 44% | 67% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 23% | |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 77% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 11% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 40% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 46% | 59% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 13% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 4 | 39% | 95% | |
| 5 | 52% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 June–1 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.58%