Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 30 June–1 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.9% | 25.0–29.0% | 24.4–29.6% | 24.0–30.1% | 23.1–31.1% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–25.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.0% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.0% | 6.3–9.4% | 6.0–9.7% | 5.5–10.4% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.4–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.5–9.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.1–7.2% | 3.7–7.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.5–5.1% | 2.2–5.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.4–5.0% | 2.1–5.5% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.6–2.8% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Ora! (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ora! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 17% | 96% | |
| 23 | 4% | 79% | |
| 24 | 71% | 74% | Median |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 96% | |
| 19 | 5% | 94% | |
| 20 | 71% | 88% | Median |
| 21 | 5% | 18% | |
| 22 | 13% | 13% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 15% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 78% | 84% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 6% | |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 9% | 97% | |
| 6 | 87% | 88% | Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 22% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 76% | 99.4% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 23% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 99.2% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 12% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ora! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 22% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 76% | 99.4% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 23% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 30 June–1 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 810
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.80%