Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 1–6 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.1% 25.5–28.8% 25.0–29.3% 24.6–29.7% 23.9–30.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.5% 20.0–23.1% 19.6–23.5% 19.3–23.9% 18.6–24.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.6–14.8% 11.3–15.1% 10.7–15.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.3–8.8% 6.1–9.1% 5.7–9.6%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.0% 4.1–7.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.4% 2.8–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.2%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–5.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 16–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 37% 97%  
23 48% 60% Median
24 11% 12%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 11% 99.9%  
17 35% 89%  
18 24% 53% Median
19 14% 29%  
20 12% 15%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.8%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 57% 98% Median
12 30% 41%  
13 11% 11%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 62% 98% Median
6 35% 36%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 31% 87%  
6 53% 56% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 7% 99.6%  
5 88% 93% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 34% 96%  
4 61% 62% Median
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 2% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 37% 100%  
2 53% 63% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–6 4–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 31% 87%  
6 53% 56% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 7% 99.6%  
5 88% 93% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations