Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 10–12 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.8% 25.1–28.7% 24.6–29.2% 24.1–29.6% 23.3–30.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–23 21–24 21–26 19–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–22 17–22 16–22 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 9–11 9–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.7%  
20 0.1% 99.2%  
21 33% 99.1%  
22 1.3% 66%  
23 57% 65% Median
24 6% 9%  
25 0.2% 3%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0% 0.8%  
28 0.8% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 3% 97%  
18 4% 94%  
19 40% 90%  
20 33% 50% Median
21 4% 18%  
22 13% 13%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 1.4% 99.7%  
9 5% 98%  
10 55% 94% Median
11 35% 39%  
12 1.0% 3%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 40% 93%  
6 38% 53% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 0.1% 0.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 42% 99.9%  
6 52% 58% Median
7 5% 6%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0.1% 82%  
4 78% 82% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 51% 98% Median
4 15% 47%  
5 32% 32%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 82% 98% Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 42% 99.9%  
6 52% 58% Median
7 5% 6%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0.1% 82%  
4 78% 82% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations