Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 8–13 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.2% | 25.6–28.9% | 25.1–29.3% | 24.7–29.8% | 24.0–30.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.9–22.9% | 19.5–23.4% | 19.1–23.7% | 18.4–24.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.9% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.4–14.6% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.6–15.6% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.3–9.3% | 5.9–9.9% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.9% | 4.7–8.4% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 3.9–7.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.5–3.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–7 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 11% | 97% | |
| 22 | 33% | 86% | |
| 23 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 30% | 38% | |
| 25 | 7% | 8% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 19% | 94% | |
| 18 | 24% | 75% | |
| 19 | 30% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 21% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 42% | 98% | |
| 11 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 26% | 36% | |
| 13 | 10% | 10% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 54% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 33% | 38% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 100% | |
| 5 | 38% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 45% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 35% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 58% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 28% | |
| 3 | 16% | 28% | |
| 4 | 11% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 44% | 96% | |
| 4 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 15% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 23% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 100% | |
| 5 | 38% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 45% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 35% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 58% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 8–13 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.75%