Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 20–23 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 22 20–24 20–24 19–24 18–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 16 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.5% 100%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 19% 97%  
21 17% 78%  
22 20% 61% Median
23 15% 41%  
24 23% 26%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 4% 99.7%  
15 15% 95%  
16 34% 80% Median
17 33% 47%  
18 11% 13%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 5% 99.7%  
11 15% 95%  
12 58% 80% Median
13 13% 22%  
14 8% 9%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.5% 100%  
5 28% 98.5%  
6 31% 71% Median
7 36% 39%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 23% 98%  
6 19% 75%  
7 53% 56% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 4% 98%  
4 56% 94% Median
5 35% 38%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 45% 94% Median
4 46% 48%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 2% 4%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 59% 94% Median
3 33% 34%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–6 0–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 23% 98%  
6 19% 75%  
7 53% 56% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 4% 98%  
4 56% 94% Median
5 35% 38%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations