Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 29 July–3 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.1% | 18.7–22.6% | 18.4–23.0% | 17.7–23.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.7–15.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.5–8.5% | 6.3–8.8% | 6.1–9.1% | 5.7–9.6% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.3–8.2% | 6.0–8.5% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.4–9.3% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Ora! (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ora! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 12% | 98% | |
| 22 | 28% | 86% | |
| 23 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 24 | 33% | 40% | |
| 25 | 4% | 8% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 28% | 96% | |
| 17 | 16% | 68% | |
| 18 | 30% | 53% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 23% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 47% | 85% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 38% | |
| 13 | 18% | 20% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 19% | 82% | |
| 6 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 9% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 28% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 38% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 4 | 57% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 37% | |
| 6 | 7% | 11% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 46% | 96% | |
| 4 | 44% | 50% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 32% | |
| 3 | 2% | 32% | |
| 4 | 30% | 30% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ora! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 28% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 38% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 4 | 57% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 37% | |
| 6 | 7% | 11% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 29 July–3 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.41%