Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 24 July–3 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.9–26.8% | 23.5–27.2% | 23.2–27.6% | 22.5–28.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.9–23.6% | 20.5–24.0% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.5–25.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.8% | 9.8–11.9% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.5% | 8.9–13.0% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.3–8.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.6–9.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.3–7.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 13% | 91% | |
| 21 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 39% | 41% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 22% | 98% | |
| 18 | 30% | 76% | Median |
| 19 | 28% | 46% | |
| 20 | 18% | 18% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 20% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 65% | 80% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 15% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 22% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 38% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 53% | 62% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 46% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 45% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 56% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 19% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 27% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 22% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 46% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 45% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24 July–3 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.38%