Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 2–5 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 23 23 22–23 20–23
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 20 20 20 17–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10 10 9–10 8–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4–6 4–7
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 7 7 7 6–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 4 4 4–5 4–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 1.2% 100%  
21 0.2% 98.8%  
22 3% 98.7%  
23 96% 96% Median
24 0% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.0%  
19 1.2% 98.9%  
20 97% 98% Median
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.3% 100%  
9 1.4% 98.7%  
10 96% 97% Median
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 96% 100% Median
5 1.2% 4%  
6 2% 3%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.8%  
7 98.8% 99.2% Median
8 0.1% 0.4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 97% 100% Median
5 1.4% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 97% 99.5% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98.6% 100% Median
3 1.3% 1.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 7 7 7 6–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 4–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.8%  
7 98.8% 99.2% Median
8 0.1% 0.4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 97% 100% Median
5 1.4% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations