Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 22–24 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–25 20–25 20–25 20–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 15–20 15–21 15–21 15–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 4–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 9% 99.6%  
21 19% 90%  
22 4% 72%  
23 43% 67% Median
24 3% 24%  
25 21% 21%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 14% 99.9%  
16 2% 86%  
17 21% 84%  
18 4% 63%  
19 43% 59% Median
20 10% 16%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 7% 99.2%  
11 14% 93%  
12 50% 78% Median
13 25% 29%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 37% 100%  
6 12% 63%  
7 38% 50% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 34% 97%  
6 61% 63% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 1.0% 93%  
4 55% 92% Median
5 35% 37%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 50% 98% Median
4 46% 49%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 49% 85% Median
3 34% 36%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 0–5 0–5 0–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 37% 100%  
6 12% 63%  
7 38% 50% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 1.0% 93%  
4 55% 92% Median
5 35% 37%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations