Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 31 August–3 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.5% | 24.6–28.6% | 24.0–29.2% | 23.5–29.7% | 22.6–30.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.4–24.2% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.5–25.3% | 18.7–26.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.2–14.3% | 10.8–14.7% | 10.5–15.1% | 9.9–15.9% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.5–9.6% | 6.2–10.0% | 5.7–10.6% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.5–9.1% | 5.1–9.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% | 3.2–6.0% | 2.8–6.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.9–5.2% | 2.7–5.5% | 2.4–6.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.1–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.8–3.2% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.5–2.7% |
| Ora! (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% | 0.3–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 19–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ora! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 21 | 71% | 98% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 27% | |
| 23 | 2% | 17% | |
| 24 | 7% | 14% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 17 | 7% | 95% | |
| 18 | 5% | 88% | |
| 19 | 17% | 83% | |
| 20 | 10% | 66% | |
| 21 | 52% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 56% | 99.5% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 44% | |
| 11 | 16% | 28% | |
| 12 | 7% | 13% | |
| 13 | 2% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 97% | |
| 7 | 27% | 87% | |
| 8 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 61% | 99.6% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 39% | |
| 6 | 13% | 17% | |
| 7 | 3% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 4 | 79% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 80% | |
| 2 | 0% | 80% | |
| 3 | 58% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 19% | 22% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 29% | 31% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 77% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Ora! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 97% | |
| 7 | 27% | 87% | |
| 8 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 4 | 79% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–3 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 6.54%