Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 4–6 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.3% 11.1–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Progetto Civico Italia (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 22 21–25 21–25 20–25 18–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 17 16–20 16–21 16–22 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 8–14
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Progetto Civico Italia (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 100%  
19 0.4% 98%  
20 2% 98%  
21 31% 96%  
22 29% 65% Median
23 16% 36%  
24 7% 20%  
25 13% 14%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 14% 99.9%  
17 41% 86% Median
18 11% 46%  
19 23% 35%  
20 6% 12%  
21 3% 6%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.8%  
9 1.2% 99.4%  
10 16% 98%  
11 33% 82% Median
12 45% 49%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 3% 99.5%  
6 30% 96%  
7 31% 67% Median
8 27% 36%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 6% 99.8%  
5 68% 94% Median
6 18% 25%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 33% 88%  
5 49% 55% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 37% 90%  
4 17% 53% Median
5 36% 36%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 59% 98.8% Median
3 37% 40%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Progetto Civico Italia (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progetto Civico Italia (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0% 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 3% 99.5%  
6 30% 96%  
7 31% 67% Median
8 27% 36%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 33% 88%  
5 49% 55% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations