Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 2–7 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.8% 25.2–28.5% 24.8–29.0% 24.4–29.4% 23.6–30.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.6% 19.1–22.1% 18.7–22.6% 18.4–23.0% 17.7–23.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.0–14.2% 10.7–14.5% 10.2–15.2%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.8–8.7% 6.5–9.1% 6.3–9.3% 5.9–9.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 6.9% 6.1–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.6–8.5% 5.2–9.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.9% 4.5–7.1% 4.1–7.6%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 23–24 22–24 21–24 19–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 17 16–18 16–19 16–20 15–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 1.0% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.0%  
21 1.2% 98%  
22 7% 97%  
23 44% 90% Median
24 45% 46%  
25 0.5% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.8% 100%  
16 43% 99.1%  
17 8% 56% Median
18 40% 48%  
19 4% 8%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 37% 99.9%  
10 46% 63% Median
11 12% 17%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 37% 97%  
7 58% 60% Median
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 18% 99.7%  
5 45% 82% Median
6 37% 37%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 87% 93% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 42% 99.6%  
4 55% 58% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.8% 2%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 55% 94% Median
3 39% 39%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 5 0% 5 4–6 4–6 4–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 37% 97%  
7 58% 60% Median
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 87% 93% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations