Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 16–21 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.1% | 25.5–28.8% | 25.0–29.3% | 24.6–29.7% | 23.9–30.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.8% | 19.4–22.4% | 19.0–22.8% | 18.6–23.2% | 18.0–24.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.5–15.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 3.9–7.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 7% | 96% | |
| 23 | 68% | 88% | Median |
| 24 | 5% | 20% | |
| 25 | 14% | 15% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 40% | 96% | |
| 18 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 45% | 46% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 33% | 98% | |
| 11 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 12 | 7% | 10% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 20% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 40% | 79% | Median |
| 8 | 39% | 39% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 43% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 34% | 34% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 46% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 22% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 20% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 40% | 79% | Median |
| 8 | 39% | 39% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 46% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 16–21 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.98%