Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Il Fatto Quotidiano, 21–24 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 25.9% 24.5–27.3% 24.1–27.8% 23.8–28.1% 23.1–28.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 19.1% 17.9–20.4% 17.5–20.8% 17.2–21.1% 16.7–21.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.6% 12.5–14.8% 12.3–15.1% 12.0–15.4% 11.5–16.0%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 9.2% 8.3–10.2% 8.0–10.5% 7.8–10.7% 7.4–11.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.9% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.4% 5.5–8.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.2% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–6.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.2% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–6.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.3% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 21 20–24 20–24 19–25 19–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 16 15–17 15–17 14–18 14–18
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Azione (RE) 0 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 43% 97%  
21 17% 54% Median
22 11% 37%  
23 14% 26%  
24 8% 12%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 21% 97%  
16 61% 76% Median
17 12% 15%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 5% 99.9%  
11 59% 94% Median
12 19% 36%  
13 16% 16%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 27% 89%  
8 48% 62% Median
9 14% 14%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.0% 100%  
4 14% 99.0%  
5 71% 85% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 8% 82%  
4 66% 74% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 12% 89%  
4 73% 77% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 22% 99.9%  
4 69% 78% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 48% 98.8%  
3 50% 51% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 8 0% 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 27% 89%  
8 48% 62% Median
9 14% 14%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 12% 89%  
4 73% 77% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations