Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 21–24 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.4% | 24.7–28.2% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.8–29.2% | 22.9–30.1% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.4–22.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.8–17.6% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 11% | 97% | |
| 21 | 21% | 85% | |
| 22 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 42% | |
| 24 | 8% | 16% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 16% | 93% | |
| 16 | 22% | 77% | |
| 17 | 28% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 22% | 27% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 41% | 96% | |
| 12 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 13 | 27% | 34% | |
| 14 | 3% | 7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 22% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 26% | 78% | |
| 8 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 44% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 29% | 33% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 5% | 79% | |
| 4 | 41% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 12% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 88% | Median |
| 4 | 34% | 39% | |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 3% | 13% | |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 27% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 26% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 19% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 22% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 26% | 78% | |
| 8 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 5% | 79% | |
| 4 | 41% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Corriere della Sera
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.23%