Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 22–24 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.3% | 26.2–28.5% | 25.9–28.8% | 25.6–29.1% | 25.1–29.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 20.4–22.5% | 20.1–22.8% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.9–13.6% | 11.7–13.9% | 11.5–14.1% | 11.1–14.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.7–8.0% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.7–8.0% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 5.0–6.2% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.6% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.4% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 14% | 97% | |
| 23 | 21% | 83% | |
| 24 | 5% | 62% | |
| 25 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 20% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 16% | 79% | |
| 19 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 70% | 93% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 23% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 100% | |
| 6 | 77% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 85% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 84% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 98.9% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 100% | |
| 6 | 77% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 84% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.04%