Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 5–6 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.0% 25.0–29.0% 24.5–29.6% 24.0–30.1% 23.1–31.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.4% 18.6–22.3% 18.2–22.8% 17.7–23.3% 16.9–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.5% 12.1–15.2% 11.7–15.7% 11.3–16.1% 10.7–16.9%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.2% 6.4–9.6% 6.2–9.9% 5.7–10.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.2% 5.8–9.5% 5.3–10.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.2–7.1%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–3.0%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.6%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 21–25 21–26 20–27 18–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 17 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 1–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.2%  
20 3% 98%  
21 7% 96%  
22 19% 89%  
23 15% 70%  
24 45% 56% Median
25 6% 11%  
26 1.2% 5%  
27 2% 4%  
28 0.3% 2%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 38% 96%  
17 24% 58% Median
18 21% 34%  
19 9% 14%  
20 2% 4%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 40% 97%  
11 18% 56% Median
12 14% 39%  
13 18% 25%  
14 4% 7%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 21% 96%  
7 26% 76% Median
8 48% 50%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.0% 100%  
4 9% 99.0%  
5 52% 90% Median
6 27% 38%  
7 9% 11%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0.4% 89%  
4 39% 89% Median
5 15% 50%  
6 35% 35%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 1.3% 11%  
4 9% 10%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 99.8%  
2 12% 99.0%  
3 38% 87% Median
4 44% 50%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0.7% 1.1%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 13% 99.7%  
2 58% 86% Median
3 28% 29%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 20% 20%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 21% 96%  
7 26% 76% Median
8 48% 50%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0.4% 89%  
4 39% 89% Median
5 15% 50%  
6 35% 35%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations