Opinion Poll by Lab2101 for Affari Italiani, 9 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.4% | 26.3–30.6% | 25.8–31.2% | 25.3–31.7% | 24.3–32.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.7–22.6% | 17.3–23.0% | 16.5–24.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 11.9–15.1% | 11.5–15.6% | 11.1–16.0% | 10.5–16.9% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.6% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.5–10.4% | 5.9–11.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.4% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.1% | 4.9–9.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.3% | 3.6–7.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.5% | 1.8–5.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.7–3.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.3% | 0.5–2.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% | 0.1–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 12% | 94% | |
| 24 | 51% | 82% | Median |
| 25 | 10% | 31% | |
| 26 | 14% | 21% | |
| 27 | 5% | 7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 98% | |
| 16 | 49% | 85% | Median |
| 17 | 22% | 36% | |
| 18 | 5% | 14% | |
| 19 | 5% | 9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 7% | 96% | |
| 11 | 27% | 89% | |
| 12 | 55% | 62% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 24% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 12% | 75% | |
| 8 | 61% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 97% | |
| 5 | 60% | 71% | Median |
| 6 | 10% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 4 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 15% | 37% | |
| 6 | 14% | 22% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 2 | 19% | 97% | |
| 3 | 27% | 78% | |
| 4 | 48% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 97% | |
| 2 | 71% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 24% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 12% | 75% | |
| 8 | 61% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 4 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 15% | 37% | |
| 6 | 14% | 22% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Lab2101
- Commissioner(s): Affari Italiani
- Fieldwork period: 9 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 754
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%