Opinion Poll by Piepoli for Agorà, 12–14 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 25.5–30.7% | 24.8–31.4% | 24.2–32.1% | 23.1–33.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.2–23.1% | 16.7–23.7% | 15.7–25.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.4–15.3% | 10.0–15.8% | 9.2–16.9% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.3–9.3% | 5.9–9.8% | 5.6–10.3% | 5.0–11.2% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.2% | 5.1–9.6% | 4.5–10.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.4–7.3% | 3.0–8.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.8–4.9% | 1.5–5.5% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.4–4.2% | 1.1–4.8% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.8% | 0.1–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14–19 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10–12 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 2–5 | 2–7 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 91% | 99.0% | Median |
| 22 | 2% | 8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 25 | 5% | 5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 97% | 98.9% | Median |
| 16 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 12 | 93% | 95% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 95% | |
| 6 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 4% | 96% | |
| 8 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 4 | 3% | 96% | |
| 5 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 2% | 96% | |
| 3 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 4% | 96% | |
| 8 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): Agorà
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 65,536
- Error estimate: 3.99%