Opinion Poll by Only Numbers, 14–15 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 25.8–29.9% | 25.2–30.5% | 24.8–31.0% | 23.8–32.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.3–21.9% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.4–22.9% | 16.6–23.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.1% | 9.8–12.7% | 9.4–13.1% | 9.1–13.5% | 8.5–14.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.6–2.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Progetto Civico Italia (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 22–26 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 19–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Progetto Civico Italia (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 21 | 4% | 95% | |
| 22 | 3% | 91% | |
| 23 | 11% | 88% | |
| 24 | 3% | 77% | |
| 25 | 52% | 74% | Median |
| 26 | 22% | 22% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 53% | 98.7% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 46% | |
| 17 | 8% | 39% | |
| 18 | 21% | 31% | |
| 19 | 10% | 11% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 71% | 88% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 17% | |
| 11 | 9% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 59% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 34% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 31% | 98% | |
| 6 | 63% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 63% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 37% | |
| 6 | 25% | 26% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 14% | 93% | |
| 4 | 76% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 4 | 6% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 23% | 80% | |
| 3 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Progetto Civico Italia (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progetto Civico Italia (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 31% | 98% | |
| 6 | 63% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 63% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 37% | |
| 6 | 25% | 26% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Only Numbers
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–15 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.00%