Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 13–15 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.5% | 26.4–28.7% | 26.0–29.0% | 25.7–29.3% | 25.2–29.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.1% | 20.0–22.2% | 19.7–22.5% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.7–13.4% | 11.4–13.7% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.8–14.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.7–8.4% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.2–9.0% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.0% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.0–8.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.0% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.1–2.9% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.2% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.4% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 15% | 96% | |
| 23 | 66% | 81% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 15% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 25% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 47% | 75% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 28% | |
| 19 | 5% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 11 | 46% | 49% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 73% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 24% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 51% | 99.7% | Median |
| 7 | 48% | 48% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 56% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 43% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 33% | 98% | |
| 4 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 51% | 99.7% | Median |
| 7 | 48% | 48% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 56% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 43% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2400
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.42%