Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 19 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 25.5–30.7% | 24.8–31.4% | 24.2–32.1% | 23.1–33.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 18.4–23.1% | 17.8–23.8% | 17.3–24.4% | 16.3–25.6% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.7–15.7% | 10.3–16.2% | 9.5–17.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.2% | 5.1–9.6% | 4.5–10.5% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% | 4.7–9.1% | 4.2–10.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.4–7.3% | 3.0–8.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.8–4.9% | 1.5–5.5% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.4–4.2% | 1.1–4.8% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.8% | 0.1–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–15 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 36% | 97% | |
| 23 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 24 | 9% | 49% | |
| 25 | 33% | 40% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 27 | 5% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 20% | 97% | |
| 17 | 9% | 78% | |
| 18 | 7% | 68% | |
| 19 | 33% | 62% | Median |
| 20 | 24% | 28% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 12% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 10% | 87% | |
| 11 | 7% | 77% | |
| 12 | 61% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 7% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 35% | 96% | |
| 5 | 34% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 20% | 27% | |
| 7 | 5% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 37% | 97% | |
| 6 | 47% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 13% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 4 | 61% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 28% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 44% | 48% | |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 4 | 22% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 3% | 6% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 12% | 15% | |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 47% | 47% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 37% | 97% | |
| 6 | 47% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 13% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 4 | 61% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 28% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.48%